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Read it and Reap — Part I: Gathering
by Todd Gross
One type of information is probability: what percent of the
time will a random event happen, like flopping a set (see
Poker Terms
for a definition) or having the best hand after all cards have been dealt.
In my last article,
Getting Off to a Good Start,
we looked at which starting hands
gave you the best chance of winning. This is probability: the odds that your two cards,
with the five community cards yet to be dealt, will create the best hand and win.
Another type of information is statistics: what people actually
do in a given situation. For example, if you raise before the flop, statistics tells you
how often your opponent will call, will raise, and will fold. You don't get this information
from running computer simulations, because it's based on how people actually behave. You
get the information from watching people play and keeping track of their behavior.
In this article, we tell you how to get this valuable information
without having to
spend any money playing poker.
There are two parts to getting valuable statistical information about your opponents. First
you have to watch actual poker hands and keep track of what the players do: when they call,
when they bet or raise (and if it's a no-limit or pot-limit game, how much
they bet or raise), and when they fold. Then you have to take this information you've gathered
and analyze it, to find out what their behavior is. This article
is also divided into two parts. In this part, Part I, we look at how to gather information
from actual poker hands. In
Part II,
we'll take some poker hands I've collected and do a simple analysis to see how much money you're
likely to win if you take a pot (nice to know, right?).
If you have an account with
PartyPoker,
you can look at a text record of any poker hand and save it to a file. We'll see what the contents
look like in a moment, right now I need to explain how to get this text record.
Here is an actual hand history recorded from PartyPoker, except the players names were changed:
As you can see, the hand history tells you:
In some cases, you also get to see the players' cards, but only if (1) there are at least 2 players at the end of the hand (after the river card is dealt and all bets are made), or (2) they choose to show their cards. In this hand, you not only see Player 2's cards (pair of 3s), you also see Player 1's (A 6 offsuit) because both players were in the hand at the end. Note that, in most cases, you don't get to see a player's hole cards. Now that we know how to record hands, and what information these recorded hands contain, we can talk about how to get useful statistical information about the players. In Part II, we use information from 100 different hands played at several different tables and times to predict how large a pot we are likely to collect if we win. |
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